72% of flights from Chicago to Louisville arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is worse than the typical U.S. route. The 8 a.m. departures ran on time 91% of the time; the 2 p.m. ones 65%. Most reliable airline: American Airlines (75%). 14% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for ORD → SDF: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 47% of the time. About 1 in 10 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 57 three hours or more; 3.7% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early72%
- 15–30 min late7.6%
- 30–60 min late6.8%
- 1–2 hours late5.6%
- 2–3 hours late2.4%
- 3+ hours late1.8%
- Diverted0.1%
- Cancelled3.7%
Share of all 3,312 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 2,014 | 70% | 3.7% | −2 min | 10.4% | +75 min | Republic Airways 42%, SkyWest 32%, GoJet 26%, United Airlines 0% |
| American Airlines | 1,298 | 75% | 3.6% | −10 min | 8.9% | +75 min | Republic Airways 77%, Envoy 22%, SkyWest 1%, American Airlines 0%, PSA Airlines 0% |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at ORD). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | United Airlines | American Airlines |
|---|---|---|
| 6 a.m. | 78% | — |
| 7 a.m. | 79% | — |
| 8 a.m. | — | 91% |
| 9 a.m. | — | 74% |
| 10 a.m. | 66% | — |
| 2 p.m. | 63% | 72% |
| 3 p.m. | — | 72% |
| 4 p.m. | 70% | — |
| 5 p.m. | 70% | — |
| 6 p.m. | — | 71% |
| 7 p.m. | 74% | 68% |
| 8 p.m. | — | 69% |
| 9 p.m. | 66% | — |
Last flight of the day
On ORD → SDF, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 4.9% of the time, against 3.3% for its earlier flights (1.5× as often). It arrived 3+ hours late 1.4% of the time (earlier flights: 1.9%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 7:29 p.m. | 4.7% | 1.4% | 3.2% | first flight 8:00 a.m. |
| United Airlines | 9:25 p.m. | 5.2% | 1.4% | 3.3% | first flight 6:59 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
If you need to be in SDF tonight, book an earlier flight so there's a backup if it's cancelled.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: October (85%). Worst: January (68%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 498 | 68% | 7.2% |
| Tuesday | 463 | 75% | 2.4% |
| Wednesday | 466 | 74% | 2.1% |
| Thursday | 478 | 77% | 2.9% |
| Friday | 477 | 72% | 3.1% |
| Saturday | 449 | 72% | 3.6% |
| Sunday | 481 | 67% | 4.0% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: weather 78 · air traffic/airport 41 · airline 2
Month by month
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UA 3598 | 5:50 p.m. | 348 | 71% | 4.3% | −5 min | Republic Airways |
| AA 4603 | 7:29 p.m. | 258 | 72% | 3.9% | −12 min | Republic Airways |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2025 | 10 | 0% | 1 |
| Apr 2, 2026 | 10 | 0% | 4 |
| Jun 8, 2026 | 9 | 0% | 1 |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 9 | 0% | 2 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 9 | 0% | 2 |
Nearby airport alternatives
Other ways to make the same trip, using airports within 60 miles of Chicago or Louisville. MDW → SDF has been 10 points more reliable.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORD → SDF (this route) | 3,312 | 72% | 3.6% |
| MDW → SDF Chicago Midway to Louisville Muhammad Ali | 966 | 82% | 1.7% |
Questions
How often are flights from ORD to SDF on time?
72% of 3,312 scheduled flights from Chicago, IL to Louisville, KY arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 3.6% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly ORD to SDF?
Flights scheduled to leave at 8 a.m. were the most reliable (91% on time). The 2 p.m. departures were the least (65%).
Which airline is most on time from ORD to SDF?
American Airlines: 75% of its 1,298 flights on the route arrived on time. United Airlines: 70%.
What month has the most delays from ORD to SDF?
January (68% on time). The best month is October (85%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from ORD to SDF more likely to be cancelled?
Yes. Each airline's last ORD–SDF flight of the day was cancelled 4.9% of the time over the past year, against 3.3% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- SDF → ORD (return)
- Chicago O'Hare (ORD) delays by hour
- Flights into Louisville Muhammad Ali (SDF)
- United Airlines on-time record
- American Airlines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.