68% of flights from Chicago to Minneapolis arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is worse than the typical U.S. route. The 7 a.m. departures ran on time 89% of the time; the 6 p.m. ones 51%. Most reliable airline: American Airlines (70%). 14% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for ORD → MSP: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 50% of the time. About 1 in 9 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 36 three hours or more; 2.7% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early68%
- 15–30 min late9.2%
- 30–60 min late8.8%
- 1–2 hours late5.9%
- 2–3 hours late2.5%
- 3+ hours late2.8%
- Diverted0.2%
- Cancelled2.7%
Share of all 6,420 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 2,605 | 69% | 1.5% | 0 min | 9.6% | +69 min | United Airlines 92%, SkyWest 7%, Republic Airways 1% |
| Delta Air Lines | 1,962 | 65% | 3.0% | −2 min | 14.2% | +97 min | Delta Air Lines 73%, SkyWest 26%, Endeavor Air 1% |
| American Airlines | 1,840 | 70% | 4.1% | −4 min | 10.3% | +76 min | Envoy 58%, Republic Airways 27%, American Airlines 7%, SkyWest 6%, PSA Airlines 2% |
| Frontier Airlines | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | Frontier Airlines |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at ORD). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | United Airlines | Delta Air Lines | American Airlines |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 a.m. | — | 82% | — |
| 7 a.m. | 88% | — | — |
| 8 a.m. | 79% | 72% | 83% |
| 9 a.m. | — | — | 78% |
| 10 a.m. | 78% | — | — |
| 11 a.m. | — | 64% | 77% |
| noon | 69% | 65% | — |
| 2 p.m. | 71% | — | — |
| 3 p.m. | 59% | 59% | 72% |
| 4 p.m. | 68% | — | — |
| 5 p.m. | 59% | 49% | 58% |
| 6 p.m. | 53% | 45% | — |
| 7 p.m. | — | — | 62% |
| 8 p.m. | 53% | 61% | 64% |
| 9 p.m. | 60% | — | — |
| 10 p.m. | — | — | 61% |
Last flight of the day
On ORD → MSP, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 4.6% of the time, against 2.3% for its earlier flights (2.0× as often). It arrived 3+ hours late 3.1% of the time (earlier flights: 2.8%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 10:40 p.m. | 7.4% | 1.9% | 3.3% | first flight 8:25 a.m. |
| Delta Air Lines | 8:21 p.m. | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | first flight 6:30 a.m. |
| United Airlines | 8:14 p.m. | 1.6% | 3.6% | 1.5% | first flight 7:00 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
If you need to be in MSP tonight, book an earlier flight so there's a backup if it's cancelled.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: October (82%). Worst: July (61%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 986 | 67% | 3.8% |
| Tuesday | 906 | 71% | 1.6% |
| Wednesday | 894 | 69% | 1.0% |
| Thursday | 947 | 66% | 2.4% |
| Friday | 941 | 65% | 2.8% |
| Saturday | 792 | 72% | 3.5% |
| Sunday | 954 | 66% | 3.9% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: weather 108 · air traffic/airport 47 · airline 19
Month by month
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DL 1717 | 6:30 a.m. | 167 | 86% | 1.2% | −13 min | Delta Air Lines |
| UA 2232 | 7:00 a.m. | 287 | 90% | 0.4% | −10 min | United Airlines |
| UA 467 | 12:45 p.m. | 248 | 69% | 0.8% | +2 min | United Airlines |
| UA 2298 | 2:30 p.m. | 322 | 71% | 0.9% | +3 min | United Airlines |
| DL 1533 | 3:55 p.m. | 216 | 58% | 2.8% | +6 min | Delta Air Lines |
| DL 1306 | 6:45 p.m. | 193 | 45% | 6.7% | +16 min | Delta Air Lines |
| UA 2005 | 7:57 p.m. | 180 | 52% | 3.9% | +9 min | United Airlines |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2025 | 20 | 0% | 3 |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 19 | 0% | 4 |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 17 | 0% | 13 |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 16 | 0% | 1 |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 15 | 0% | 9 |
Nearby airport alternatives
Other ways to make the same trip, using airports within 60 miles of Chicago or Minneapolis. MDW → MSP has been 7 points more reliable.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORD → MSP (this route) | 6,420 | 68% | 2.7% |
| MDW → MSP Chicago Midway to Minneapolis-St. Paul | 2,626 | 75% | 1.7% |
Questions
How often are flights from ORD to MSP on time?
68% of 6,420 scheduled flights from Chicago, IL to Minneapolis, MN arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 2.7% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly ORD to MSP?
Flights scheduled to leave at 7 a.m. were the most reliable (89% on time). The 6 p.m. departures were the least (51%).
Which airline is most on time from ORD to MSP?
American Airlines: 70% of its 1,840 flights on the route arrived on time. United Airlines: 69%. Delta Air Lines: 65%.
What month has the most delays from ORD to MSP?
July (61% on time). The best month is October (82%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from ORD to MSP more likely to be cancelled?
Yes. Each airline's last ORD–MSP flight of the day was cancelled 4.6% of the time over the past year, against 2.3% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- MSP → ORD (return)
- Chicago O'Hare (ORD) delays by hour
- Flights into Minneapolis-St. Paul (MSP)
- United Airlines on-time record
- Delta Air Lines on-time record
- American Airlines on-time record
- Frontier Airlines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.