77% of flights from Minneapolis to Denver arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is about the typical U.S. route. The 5 a.m. departures ran on time 95% of the time; the 6 p.m. ones 61%. Most reliable airline: United Airlines (80%). 9% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for MSP → DEN: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 56% of the time. About 1 in 13 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 73 three hours or more; 0.8% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early77%
- 15–30 min late8.3%
- 30–60 min late6.1%
- 1–2 hours late4.5%
- 2–3 hours late1.7%
- 3+ hours late1.4%
- Diverted0.2%
- Cancelled0.8%
Share of all 5,811 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 1,795 | 75% | 1.1% | −4 min | 6.8% | +56 min | Delta Air Lines |
| United Airlines | 1,710 | 80% | 0.8% | −7 min | 8.3% | +83 min | United Airlines 87%, SkyWest 13% |
| Southwest Airlines | 1,663 | 76% | 0.4% | −3 min | 6.6% | +58 min | Southwest Airlines |
| Frontier Airlines | 643 | 77% | 0.9% | −11 min | 10.3% | +112 min | Frontier Airlines |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at MSP). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | Delta Air Lines | United Airlines | Southwest Airlines | Frontier Airlines |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 a.m. | — | 94% | 97% | — |
| 6 a.m. | — | — | 94% | 84% |
| 8 a.m. | 74% | 82% | — | — |
| 9 a.m. | 80% | 84% | — | — |
| 10 a.m. | — | — | 73% | 87% |
| 11 a.m. | 80% | 88% | 84% | — |
| noon | 81% | — | 82% | — |
| 1 p.m. | — | 87% | — | — |
| 2 p.m. | 78% | — | 70% | — |
| 4 p.m. | — | 65% | — | — |
| 5 p.m. | — | 63% | — | — |
| 6 p.m. | 65% | 51% | 59% | — |
| 9 p.m. | 77% | — | — | — |
| 10 p.m. | 70% | — | — | — |
Last flight of the day
On MSP → DEN, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 0.4% of the time, against 0.9% for its earlier flights, so here the last flight is actually the safer one. It arrived 3+ hours late 2.1% of the time (earlier flights: 1.1%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 10:15 p.m. | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | first flight 7:00 a.m. |
| Frontier Airlines | 10:15 p.m. | 1.1% | 3.9% | 1.1% | first flight 1:13 p.m. |
| United Airlines | 6:23 p.m. | 0.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | first flight 5:45 a.m. |
| Southwest Airlines | 6:55 p.m. | 0.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | first flight 6:00 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: November (86%). Worst: June (68%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 881 | 79% | 0.6% |
| Tuesday | 809 | 79% | 0.1% |
| Wednesday | 818 | 77% | 0.1% |
| Thursday | 857 | 76% | 0.2% |
| Friday | 869 | 75% | 0.7% |
| Saturday | 704 | 80% | 1.3% |
| Sunday | 873 | 74% | 2.4% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: airline 19 · weather 19 · air traffic/airport 7
Month by month
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F9 1149 | 6:45 a.m. | 330 | 76% | 0.9% | −10 min | Frontier Airlines |
| DL 2849 | 8:55 a.m. | 255 | 79% | 1.2% | +1 min | Delta Air Lines |
| UA 1891 | 9:05 a.m. | 365 | 83% | 1.4% | −4 min | United Airlines |
| DL 2927 | 11:00 a.m. | 239 | 81% | 2.1% | −7 min | Delta Air Lines |
| UA 1305 | 1:36 p.m. | 155 | 86% | 0.7% | −12 min | United Airlines |
| DL 1025 | 2:27 p.m. | 365 | 78% | 0.3% | −5 min | Delta Air Lines |
| UA 2272 | 4:51 p.m. | 311 | 65% | 0.3% | −1 min | United Airlines |
| DL 2931 | 6:45 p.m. | 350 | 65% | 0.9% | 0 min | Delta Air Lines |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 15 | 0% | 11 |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 17 | 12% | 0 |
| Feb 17, 2026 | 13 | 15% | 0 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | 14 | 21% | 2 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 16 | 25% | 0 |
Questions
How often are flights from MSP to DEN on time?
77% of 5,811 scheduled flights from Minneapolis, MN to Denver, CO arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 0.8% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly MSP to DEN?
Flights scheduled to leave at 5 a.m. were the most reliable (95% on time). The 6 p.m. departures were the least (61%).
Which airline is most on time from MSP to DEN?
United Airlines: 80% of its 1,710 flights on the route arrived on time. Delta Air Lines: 75%. Southwest Airlines: 76%. Frontier Airlines: 77%.
What month has the most delays from MSP to DEN?
June (68% on time). The best month is November (86%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from MSP to DEN more likely to be cancelled?
No, the opposite. Each airline's last MSP–DEN flight of the day was cancelled 0.4% of the time over the past year, against 0.9% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- DEN → MSP (return)
- Minneapolis-St. Paul (MSP) delays by hour
- Flights into Denver (DEN)
- Delta Air Lines on-time record
- United Airlines on-time record
- Southwest Airlines on-time record
- Frontier Airlines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.