70% of flights from Raleigh to New York arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is worse than the typical U.S. route. The 5 a.m. departures ran on time 89% of the time; the 8 p.m. ones 44%. Most reliable airline: American Airlines (73%). 17% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for RDU → JFK: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 44% of the time. About 1 in 9 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 45 three hours or more; 5.7% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early70%
- 15–30 min late7.1%
- 30–60 min late6.2%
- 1–2 hours late6.2%
- 2–3 hours late2.4%
- 3+ hours late2.2%
- Diverted0.2%
- Cancelled5.7%
Share of all 3,672 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 1,456 | 71% | 6.0% | −8 min | 11.7% | +89 min | Endeavor Air 92%, Republic Airways 8% |
| American Airlines | 1,257 | 73% | 4.5% | −5 min | 8.9% | +72 min | Republic Airways |
| JetBlue | 959 | 66% | 7.0% | −6 min | 11.8% | +81 min | JetBlue |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at RDU). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | Delta Air Lines | American Airlines | JetBlue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 a.m. | — | 89% | — |
| 6 a.m. | — | 88% | 80% |
| 7 a.m. | 83% | — | — |
| 9 a.m. | 77% | — | — |
| 10 a.m. | 74% | 88% | 64% |
| noon | — | 65% | — |
| 2 p.m. | 76% | — | — |
| 5 p.m. | — | — | 47% |
| 6 p.m. | 57% | 46% | — |
| 7 p.m. | 56% | — | — |
Last flight of the day
On RDU → JFK, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 7.8% of the time, against 4.9% for its earlier flights (1.6× as often). It arrived 3+ hours late 2.9% of the time (earlier flights: 1.9%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 7:37 p.m. | 7.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | first flight 5:34 a.m. |
| JetBlue | 5:50 p.m. | 7.6% | 3.9% | 6.7% | first flight 6:50 a.m. |
| Delta Air Lines | 7:55 p.m. | 8.8% | 1.6% | 5.0% | first flight 7:15 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
If you need to be in JFK tonight, book an earlier flight so there's a backup if it's cancelled.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: October (82%). Worst: July (59%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 548 | 65% | 9.5% |
| Tuesday | 516 | 71% | 6.4% |
| Wednesday | 503 | 76% | 1.8% |
| Thursday | 507 | 73% | 3.2% |
| Friday | 532 | 71% | 4.1% |
| Saturday | 541 | 73% | 5.5% |
| Sunday | 525 | 61% | 9.1% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: air traffic/airport 90 · weather 74 · airline 46
Month by month
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA 4805 | 6:00 a.m. | 209 | 89% | 1.9% | −9 min | Republic Airways |
| B6 286 | 6:50 a.m. | 222 | 74% | 5.4% | −12 min | JetBlue |
| DL 5239 | 7:10 a.m. | 349 | 84% | 5.2% | −11 min | Endeavor Air |
| DL 5294 | 10:00 a.m. | 364 | 75% | 2.8% | −7 min | Endeavor Air |
| B6 2786 | 10:58 a.m. | 158 | 68% | 5.1% | −5 min | JetBlue |
| AA 4765 | 11:59 a.m. | 290 | 72% | 3.5% | −5 min | Republic Airways |
| DL 5009 | 2:13 p.m. | 253 | 61% | 7.9% | −3 min | Endeavor Air |
| DL 5219 | 6:59 p.m. | 347 | 55% | 8.9% | 0 min | Endeavor Air |
| AA 4417 | 7:37 p.m. | 137 | 49% | 6.6% | +9 min | Republic Airways |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2026 | 11 | 0% | 11 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | 11 | 0% | 9 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 10 | 0% | 8 |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 10 | 0% | 10 |
| Jul 6, 2026 | 11 | 9% | 6 |
Nearby airport alternatives
Other ways to make the same trip, using airports within 60 miles of Raleigh or New York. RDU → EWR has been 3 points more reliable.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| RDU → JFK (this route) | 3,672 | 70% | 5.7% |
| RDU → EWR Raleigh-Durham to Newark | 2,872 | 73% | 3.7% |
| RDU → LGA Raleigh-Durham to LaGuardia | 4,339 | 65% | 6.6% |
Questions
How often are flights from RDU to JFK on time?
70% of 3,672 scheduled flights from Raleigh/Durham, NC to New York, NY arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 5.7% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly RDU to JFK?
Flights scheduled to leave at 5 a.m. were the most reliable (89% on time). The 8 p.m. departures were the least (44%).
Which airline is most on time from RDU to JFK?
American Airlines: 73% of its 1,257 flights on the route arrived on time. Delta Air Lines: 71%. JetBlue: 66%.
What month has the most delays from RDU to JFK?
July (59% on time). The best month is October (82%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from RDU to JFK more likely to be cancelled?
Yes. Each airline's last RDU–JFK flight of the day was cancelled 7.8% of the time over the past year, against 4.9% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- JFK → RDU (return)
- Raleigh-Durham (RDU) delays by hour
- Flights into New York JFK (JFK)
- Delta Air Lines on-time record
- American Airlines on-time record
- JetBlue on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.