80% of flights from Phoenix to Sacramento arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is about the typical U.S. route. The 6 a.m. departures ran on time 98% of the time; the 10 p.m. ones 54%. Most reliable airline: American Airlines (81%). 6% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for PHX → SMF: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 61% of the time. About 1 in 18 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 150 three hours or more; 0.4% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early80%
- 15–30 min late8.5%
- 30–60 min late5.8%
- 1–2 hours late3.9%
- 2–3 hours late1.1%
- 3+ hours late0.7%
- Diverted0.2%
- Cancelled0.4%
Share of all 3,606 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 2,118 | 78% | 0.3% | −5 min | 5.0% | +47 min | Southwest Airlines |
| American Airlines | 1,488 | 81% | 0.5% | −7 min | 6.7% | +70 min | American Airlines 66%, SkyWest 24%, Envoy 10% |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at PHX). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | Southwest Airlines | American Airlines |
|---|---|---|
| 6 a.m. | 98% | — |
| 7 a.m. | 96% | 93% |
| 8 a.m. | 95% | 92% |
| 9 a.m. | 90% | — |
| 10 a.m. | 89% | 83% |
| 11 a.m. | — | 90% |
| 1 p.m. | 76% | 83% |
| 2 p.m. | — | 78% |
| 3 p.m. | 79% | — |
| 4 p.m. | — | 78% |
| 5 p.m. | 62% | 71% |
| 7 p.m. | 67% | — |
| 8 p.m. | 62% | 71% |
| 10 p.m. | 54% | — |
Last flight of the day
On PHX → SMF, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 0.7% of the time, against 0.4% for its earlier flights (1.9× as often). It arrived 3+ hours late 1.2% of the time (earlier flights: 0.5%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 8:48 p.m. | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | first flight 7:15 a.m. |
| Southwest Airlines | 9:40 p.m. | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | first flight 5:35 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
If you need to be in SMF tonight, book an earlier flight so there's a backup if it's cancelled.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: September (86%). Worst: June (73%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 544 | 81% | 0.4% |
| Tuesday | 517 | 83% | 0.2% |
| Wednesday | 522 | 84% | 0.0% |
| Thursday | 538 | 78% | 0.6% |
| Friday | 527 | 80% | 0.8% |
| Saturday | 427 | 80% | 0.7% |
| Sunday | 531 | 71% | 0.4% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: weather 8 · air traffic/airport 5 · airline 2
Month by month
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA 1677 | 11:04 a.m. | 234 | 87% | 0.0% | −6 min | American Airlines |
| AA 2048 | 8:49 p.m. | 121 | 69% | 0.8% | −1 min | American Airlines |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | 9 | 33% | 0 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 9 | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 9 | 33% | 0 |
| Jun 20, 2026 | 8 | 38% | 0 |
| Sep 22, 2025 | 8 | 38% | 0 |
Questions
How often are flights from PHX to SMF on time?
80% of 3,606 scheduled flights from Phoenix, AZ to Sacramento, CA arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 0.4% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly PHX to SMF?
Flights scheduled to leave at 6 a.m. were the most reliable (98% on time). The 10 p.m. departures were the least (54%).
Which airline is most on time from PHX to SMF?
American Airlines: 81% of its 1,488 flights on the route arrived on time. Southwest Airlines: 78%.
What month has the most delays from PHX to SMF?
June (73% on time). The best month is September (86%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from PHX to SMF more likely to be cancelled?
Yes. Each airline's last PHX–SMF flight of the day was cancelled 0.7% of the time over the past year, against 0.4% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- SMF → PHX (return)
- Phoenix Sky Harbor (PHX) delays by hour
- Flights into Sacramento (SMF)
- Southwest Airlines on-time record
- American Airlines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.