82% of flights from Minneapolis to Sacramento arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is better than the typical U.S. route. The 10 a.m. departures ran on time 89% of the time; the 6 p.m. ones 76%. 5% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for MSP → SMF: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 63% of the time. About 1 in 22 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 198 three hours or more; 0.5% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early82%
- 15–30 min late6.6%
- 30–60 min late5.9%
- 1–2 hours late3.5%
- 2–3 hours late0.5%
- 3+ hours late0.5%
- Diverted0.0%
- Cancelled0.5%
Share of all 593 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 593 | 82% | 0.5% | −5 min | 4.6% | +57 min | Delta Air Lines |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at MSP). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
Last flight of the day
On MSP → SMF, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 0.4% of the time, against 0.4% for its earlier flights, about the same. It arrived 3+ hours late 1.3% of the time (earlier flights: 0.0%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 6:45 p.m. | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | first flight 10:24 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: September (94%). Worst: June (76%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 88 | — | — |
| Tuesday | 85 | — | — |
| Wednesday | 83 | — | — |
| Thursday | 85 | — | — |
| Friday | 84 | — | — |
| Saturday | 81 | — | — |
| Sunday | 87 | — | — |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: airline 2 · weather 1
Month by month
Not enough months with data to draw a trend.
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DL 574 | 6:45 p.m. | 348 | 78% | 0.3% | −3 min | Delta Air Lines |
Questions
How often are flights from MSP to SMF on time?
82% of 593 scheduled flights from Minneapolis, MN to Sacramento, CA arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 0.5% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly MSP to SMF?
Flights scheduled to leave at 10 a.m. were the most reliable (89% on time). The 6 p.m. departures were the least (76%).
What month has the most delays from MSP to SMF?
June (76% on time). The best month is September (94%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from MSP to SMF more likely to be cancelled?
Not much. Each airline's last MSP–SMF flight of the day was cancelled 0.4% of the time over the past year, against 0.4% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- SMF → MSP (return)
- Minneapolis-St. Paul (MSP) delays by hour
- Flights into Sacramento (SMF)
- Delta Air Lines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.