76% of flights from Minneapolis to Chicago arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is worse than the typical U.S. route. The 5 a.m. departures ran on time 91% of the time; the 5 p.m. ones 64%. Most reliable airline: Southwest Airlines (77%). 9% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for MSP → MDW: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 61% of the time. About 1 in 15 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 88 three hours or more; 1.5% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early76%
- 15–30 min late8.9%
- 30–60 min late6.7%
- 1–2 hours late4.1%
- 2–3 hours late1.5%
- 3+ hours late1.1%
- Diverted0.3%
- Cancelled1.5%
Share of all 2,654 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 1,591 | 77% | 1.7% | −5 min | 4.8% | +52 min | Southwest Airlines |
| Delta Air Lines | 1,063 | 74% | 1.2% | −5 min | 9.7% | +71 min | SkyWest 67%, Endeavor Air 33% |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at MSP). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | Southwest Airlines | Delta Air Lines |
|---|---|---|
| 5 a.m. | 91% | — |
| 7 a.m. | 93% | 79% |
| 10 a.m. | 80% | — |
| 11 a.m. | — | 75% |
| 3 p.m. | 68% | — |
| 4 p.m. | 66% | 69% |
| 6 p.m. | 72% | — |
Last flight of the day
On MSP → MDW, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 1.4% of the time, against 1.6% for its earlier flights, about the same. It arrived 3+ hours late 1.8% of the time (earlier flights: 0.9%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 4:38 p.m. | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | first flight 6:55 a.m. |
| Southwest Airlines | 6:40 p.m. | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | first flight 5:25 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: October (89%). Worst: June (70%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 405 | 73% | 2.0% |
| Tuesday | 381 | 78% | 1.1% |
| Wednesday | 380 | 78% | 0.8% |
| Thursday | 391 | 75% | 1.0% |
| Friday | 392 | 73% | 1.3% |
| Saturday | 324 | 84% | 2.2% |
| Sunday | 381 | 72% | 2.4% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: weather 28 · air traffic/airport 11 · airline 1
Month by month
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 8 | 0% | 1 |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 8 | 0% | 0 |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 7 | 0% | 6 |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 6 | 0% | 1 |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 6 | 0% | 1 |
Nearby airport alternatives
Other ways to make the same trip, using airports within 60 miles of Minneapolis or Chicago. None has been clearly more reliable than MSP → MDW.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSP → MDW (this route) | 2,654 | 76% | 1.5% |
| MSP → ORD Minneapolis-St. Paul to Chicago O'Hare | 6,420 | 68% | 2.9% |
Questions
How often are flights from MSP to MDW on time?
76% of 2,654 scheduled flights from Minneapolis, MN to Chicago, IL arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 1.5% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly MSP to MDW?
Flights scheduled to leave at 5 a.m. were the most reliable (91% on time). The 5 p.m. departures were the least (64%).
Which airline is most on time from MSP to MDW?
Southwest Airlines: 77% of its 1,591 flights on the route arrived on time. Delta Air Lines: 74%.
What month has the most delays from MSP to MDW?
June (70% on time). The best month is October (89%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from MSP to MDW more likely to be cancelled?
Not much. Each airline's last MSP–MDW flight of the day was cancelled 1.4% of the time over the past year, against 1.6% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- MDW → MSP (return)
- Minneapolis-St. Paul (MSP) delays by hour
- Flights into Chicago Midway (MDW)
- Southwest Airlines on-time record
- Delta Air Lines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.