69% of flights from Madison to Washington arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is worse than the typical U.S. route. The 6 a.m. departures ran on time 80% of the time; the 4 p.m. ones 55%. Most reliable airline: Delta Air Lines (69%). 18% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for MSN → DCA: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 41% of the time. About 1 in 8 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 34 three hours or more; 5.2% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early69%
- 15–30 min late5.6%
- 30–60 min late7.9%
- 1–2 hours late6.0%
- 2–3 hours late3.1%
- 3+ hours late2.9%
- Diverted0.8%
- Cancelled5.2%
Share of all 1,238 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 934 | 68% | 6.0% | −8 min | 11.5% | +111 min | PSA Airlines 92%, Republic Airways 8%, American Airlines 0%, Envoy 0% |
| Delta Air Lines | 304 | 69% | 2.6% | −8 min | 13.5% | +82 min | Republic Airways |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at MSN). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | American Airlines | Delta Air Lines |
|---|---|---|
| 6 a.m. | 80% | — |
| 10 a.m. | 62% | — |
| 3 p.m. | 57% | — |
| 4 p.m. | 55% | — |
| 5 p.m. | — | 69% |
Last flight of the day
On MSN → DCA, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 6.0% of the time, against 6.5% for its earlier flights, about the same. It arrived 3+ hours late 4.4% of the time (earlier flights: 2.6%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 3:54 p.m. | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.5% | first flight 6:00 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: October (88%). Worst: July (66%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 199 | 69% | 7.5% |
| Tuesday | 197 | 69% | 6.6% |
| Wednesday | 197 | 63% | 3.5% |
| Thursday | 192 | 71% | 3.1% |
| Friday | 193 | 65% | 4.2% |
| Saturday | 76 | — | — |
| Sunday | 184 | 69% | 6.0% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: weather 41 · air traffic/airport 15 · airline 7 · security 1
Month by month
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA 5221 | 3:57 p.m. | 198 | 66% | 5.6% | −5 min | PSA Airlines |
| DL 5645 | 5:20 p.m. | 304 | 69% | 2.6% | −8 min | Republic Airways |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | 4 | 0% | 1 |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 4 | 0% | 0 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 4 | 0% | 3 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 4 | 0% | 1 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 4 | 0% | 2 |
Questions
How often are flights from MSN to DCA on time?
69% of 1,238 scheduled flights from Madison, WI to Washington, DC arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 5.2% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly MSN to DCA?
Flights scheduled to leave at 6 a.m. were the most reliable (80% on time). The 4 p.m. departures were the least (55%).
Which airline is most on time from MSN to DCA?
Delta Air Lines: 69% of its 304 flights on the route arrived on time. American Airlines: 68%.
What month has the most delays from MSN to DCA?
July (66% on time). The best month is October (88%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from MSN to DCA more likely to be cancelled?
Not much. Each airline's last MSN–DCA flight of the day was cancelled 6.0% of the time over the past year, against 6.5% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- DCA → MSN (return)
- Dane Truax (MSN) delays by hour
- Flights into Washington Reagan National (DCA)
- American Airlines on-time record
- Delta Air Lines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.