73% of flights from Chicago to Phoenix arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is worse than the typical U.S. route. The 5 a.m. departures ran on time 93% of the time; the 9 p.m. ones 50%. Most reliable airline: Frontier Airlines (74%). 9% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for MDW → PHX: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 62% of the time. About 1 in 15 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 118 three hours or more; 1.6% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early73%
- 15–30 min late10%
- 30–60 min late7.8%
- 1–2 hours late4.9%
- 2–3 hours late1.1%
- 3+ hours late0.8%
- Diverted0.3%
- Cancelled1.6%
Share of all 2,719 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 2,610 | 73% | 1.6% | −2 min | 6.7% | +53 min | Southwest Airlines |
| Frontier Airlines | 109 | 74% | 1.8% | −6 min | 9.2% | +153 min | Frontier Airlines |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at MDW). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | Southwest Airlines |
|---|---|
| 5 a.m. | 93% |
| 6 a.m. | 87% |
| 7 a.m. | 82% |
| 8 a.m. | 90% |
| 9 a.m. | 80% |
| 10 a.m. | 81% |
| 11 a.m. | 69% |
| noon | 78% |
| 1 p.m. | 76% |
| 3 p.m. | 70% |
| 4 p.m. | 60% |
| 5 p.m. | 69% |
| 6 p.m. | 55% |
| 7 p.m. | 60% |
| 8 p.m. | 63% |
| 9 p.m. | 50% |
Last flight of the day
On MDW → PHX, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 1.9% of the time, against 1.5% for its earlier flights, about the same. It arrived 3+ hours late 1.1% of the time (earlier flights: 0.7%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 8:35 p.m. | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | first flight 5:25 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: February (83%). Worst: June (64%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 435 | 68% | 2.3% |
| Tuesday | 374 | 75% | 0.8% |
| Wednesday | 366 | 77% | 0.8% |
| Thursday | 420 | 75% | 1.9% |
| Friday | 424 | 72% | 1.4% |
| Saturday | 299 | 78% | 2.3% |
| Sunday | 401 | 71% | 1.5% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: weather 31 · airline 9 · air traffic/airport 3
Month by month
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2026 | 7 | 0% | 0 |
| Dec 30, 2025 | 10 | 10% | 0 |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 10 | 10% | 0 |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 9 | 11% | 0 |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 8 | 13% | 5 |
Nearby airport alternatives
Other ways to make the same trip, using airports within 60 miles of Chicago or Phoenix. None has been clearly more reliable than MDW → PHX.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| MDW → PHX (this route) | 2,719 | 73% | 1.6% |
| ORD → PHX Chicago O'Hare to Phoenix Sky Harbor | 5,631 | 71% | 1.6% |
Questions
How often are flights from MDW to PHX on time?
73% of 2,719 scheduled flights from Chicago, IL to Phoenix, AZ arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 1.6% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly MDW to PHX?
Flights scheduled to leave at 5 a.m. were the most reliable (93% on time). The 9 p.m. departures were the least (50%).
Which airline is most on time from MDW to PHX?
Frontier Airlines: 74% of its 109 flights on the route arrived on time. Southwest Airlines: 73%.
What month has the most delays from MDW to PHX?
June (64% on time). The best month is February (83%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from MDW to PHX more likely to be cancelled?
Not much. Each airline's last MDW–PHX flight of the day was cancelled 1.9% of the time over the past year, against 1.5% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- PHX → MDW (return)
- Chicago Midway (MDW) delays by hour
- Flights into Phoenix Sky Harbor (PHX)
- Southwest Airlines on-time record
- Frontier Airlines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.