73% of flights from Baltimore to Chicago arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is worse than the typical U.S. route. The 6 a.m. departures ran on time 93% of the time; the 8 p.m. ones 50%. 11% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for BWI → MDW: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 56% of the time. About 1 in 13 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 96 three hours or more; 2.4% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early73%
- 15–30 min late9.6%
- 30–60 min late7.0%
- 1–2 hours late4.9%
- 2–3 hours late1.5%
- 3+ hours late1.0%
- Diverted0.8%
- Cancelled2.4%
Share of all 1,824 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 1,768 | 73% | 2.4% | −3 min | 7.4% | +60 min | Southwest Airlines |
| Frontier Airlines | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | Frontier Airlines |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at BWI). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | Southwest Airlines |
|---|---|
| 6 a.m. | 93% |
| 7 a.m. | 84% |
| 9 a.m. | 78% |
| 10 a.m. | 77% |
| 1 p.m. | 83% |
| 4 p.m. | 73% |
| 5 p.m. | 62% |
| 7 p.m. | 61% |
| 8 p.m. | 50% |
Last flight of the day
On BWI → MDW, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 3.8% of the time, against 2.0% for its earlier flights (1.9× as often). It arrived 3+ hours late 1.1% of the time (earlier flights: 1.0%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 8:55 p.m. | 3.8% | 1.1% | 2.0% | first flight 6:30 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
If you need to be in MDW tonight, book an earlier flight so there's a backup if it's cancelled.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: February (86%). Worst: July (60%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 287 | 70% | 2.4% |
| Tuesday | 241 | 74% | 2.1% |
| Wednesday | 238 | 79% | 0.8% |
| Thursday | 271 | 72% | 1.8% |
| Friday | 280 | 73% | 2.5% |
| Saturday | 219 | 72% | 3.2% |
| Sunday | 288 | 70% | 3.5% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: weather 31 · airline 9 · air traffic/airport 3
Month by month
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | 7 | 0% | 5 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 6 | 0% | 1 |
| Dec 26, 2025 | 5 | 0% | 2 |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 4 | 0% | 4 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 4 | 0% | 0 |
Nearby airport alternatives
Other ways to make the same trip, using airports within 60 miles of Baltimore or Chicago. None has been clearly more reliable than BWI → MDW.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| BWI → MDW (this route) | 1,824 | 73% | 2.4% |
| IAD → ORD Washington Dulles to Chicago O'Hare | 2,106 | 74% | 0.9% |
| BWI → ORD Baltimore/Washington to Chicago O'Hare | 2,677 | 73% | 2.5% |
| DCA → MDW Washington Reagan National to Chicago Midway | 2,099 | 73% | 2.8% |
| DCA → ORD Washington Reagan National to Chicago O'Hare | 7,112 | 71% | 3.6% |
Questions
How often are flights from BWI to MDW on time?
73% of 1,824 scheduled flights from Baltimore, MD to Chicago, IL arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 2.4% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly BWI to MDW?
Flights scheduled to leave at 6 a.m. were the most reliable (93% on time). The 8 p.m. departures were the least (50%).
What month has the most delays from BWI to MDW?
July (60% on time). The best month is February (86%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from BWI to MDW more likely to be cancelled?
Yes. Each airline's last BWI–MDW flight of the day was cancelled 3.8% of the time over the past year, against 2.0% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- MDW → BWI (return)
- Baltimore/Washington (BWI) delays by hour
- Flights into Chicago Midway (MDW)
- Southwest Airlines on-time record
- Frontier Airlines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.